By the numbers

Faced with a potential audience of 38,000 volunteer coaches and in possession of an important and urgent idea. What would you do?

Send a memo? Organise a conference, pass on the message? Roll out a national strategy?

Should you think small and act big or think big and act small?

Let’s take a look. 

At scale, only the gutsy act small. Yet, the diffusion of ideas tells us to do just that. Focus on the early adopters, less than 20% of the population. In this case a potential 7,600 volunteers.  

Not all will be interested in our idea. So let’s ask only those who are engaged. Even with a generous 50% uptake, we would have only a potential 3,800 volunteers at this stage.  

Add in some specifics. Times, dates, resources, and any other constraints required to put the idea to the test. And with the same uptake rate, you are down to 1,900 volunteers. Who would if they could, engage with the idea.  

Since no idea survives first contact. Let’s give ourselves the best chance of success using 3 different treatment groups and a control. Each group will contain around 500 willing volunteers. Working with its own set of constraints. Engaged, and curious about the outcomes.

On the flip side of inclusion, must exist a fearless culture of exclusion. Opting out is to overcome the fear of missing out. Trusting the actively engaged to do the work for us. The upside, after all, is if the idea works, the group will benefit further down the line.

The trap of thinking big is to try to cover all. When we worry about leaving people out, we act small. When people are willing to get out of the way, we act big.

Let’s be clear. Neither way of thinking is easy. Both are fraught with fear. It’s on you to decide which fear is worth overcoming.