The Lindy effect suggests that the longer you have stuck around the longer you will stick around. The base rate for longevity favours established products, services, and businesses not newcomers.
Base rates allow us to predict outcomes with a greater degree of accuracy.
Kids who enjoy an activity are more likely to stick than those who don’t.
Just don’t confuse the idea of sticking around with increased chances of sporting success, because that’s a base rate that is rarely in your favour.