It’s hard to ask such a question without sounding confrontational. But the alternative is to fall for the Green Lumber fallacy.
The Green Lumber Fallacy goes like this: There once was a guy who knew everything there was to know about freshly cut lumber, yet when it came to trading it, he lost a million pounds. It made no sense because he knew another trader who was making millions. To make matters worse, the successful trader thought it was called “Green Lumber” because someone had painted it green.
There are plenty of proxy measures for performance, but in this example, trading, there is only one measure that matters and that’s money made – something our expert knew nothing about.
Applying what you think you know might be risky, but it could be worse, you could remain an expert.